主题：Trend, Cycle and Expectation Formation

报告人：陈衡，香港大学副教授

摘要：We characterize how forecasters form expectations when they cannot perfectly distinguish between trends and cycles. This model is motivated by a set of findings from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which reveal various patterns in forecasting behaviors across different forecast horizons. These facts are inconsistent with the common assumption in the expectation formation literature that trends are stable or observable. Our framework can be applied to account for changes in forecasting behavior following the introduction of explicit inflation targeting in 2012. We also extend the model to incorporate behavioral biases so as to address empirical puzzles documented in the literature.

报告人简介：Heng Chen, Associate Professor at Hong Kong University. Heng CHEN finished his PhD studies at the University of Zurich in 2010. Before he moved to Switzerland, Heng has also studied at Harvard University, Stockholm University and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His research areas include learning and information acquisition in macroeconomics and political economy. In particular, he works on topics related to financial, economic and political crises, belief formation and news market. He published papers at AEJ: Micro, EJ, IER, JEDC, and American Political Science Review.

时间：2024年5月10日（周五）中午10:00-11:30

地点：3044am永利集团3044noc学院南路校区学术会堂712会议室

主办单位：创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院